London 2012 - Plenty of Room at the Inn!

Just over 4 years ago in early July, London beat Paris to become the 2012 Olympic venue.  It came at a time when recession was being discussed  by analysts and international Banks were on the brink of what was to become a period of closures and sell-offs.  Gordon Gekko R.I.P.!

The award of the Olympics venue was seen by some as a reason to be optimistic and to celebrate. The last time London hosted the event was in 1948 when remarkably it made a very small profit.    Others pointed out that none of the Cities hosting the past 5 Olympics had made money - even during periods of relative world economic strength.    It is very doubtful whether 2012 will end up with London making a profit.   Apart from construction costs and new infrastructure, plus manpower costs to support the games there are the costs of signage and road markings which for weeks will change traffic patterns in the Capital.  The time and planning that have gone into ensuring that every aspect of transporation, security, safety and the smooth running of the games has been enormous - all at a cost.... 

Then there are the "incidental costs".  As a West London resident I have received several booklets advising me of road closures and dates where traffic will be banned or badly affected.  Apart from the cost of every household getting the two booklets (duplicating the information!), the widespread publicity about Olympic traffic only lanes with £130 fines for those unfortunate enough to drive into one has definitely deterred traffic coming into my part of London anyway.  Some tradesman are even stopping deliveries or working in Central London during the Olympics.  It will be interesting to see what experience shops and restaurants have over the games' period.

There are already several indicators that give an idea that the games may not provide the bonanza economic boost the the local economy, let alone the UK, is hoping for.  This week London hotels are having to discount room prices with one late-booking site saying it is carrying scores of central London four-star hotels this week with rates at just £59 a night and five-star luxury from £110.  Next week after the start of the games rates rise to £100 and £180 a night respectively and hotels claim they are fully booked.  If that is the case then travellers looking for a bed need not worry - only about 10% of the private rentals market that hoped to benefit from the Olympic effect have been actually booked.   Remarkably the Guardian newspaper reported that the iconic restaurant, the Ivy, normally fully booked for weeks in advance was able to offer its reporter a table for the same day.  I'm sure many restaurants are seeing the same effect. 

I guess we should not be too surprised.  With the Eurozone continuing to teeter on the brink of an ever-deepening crisis; VAT on Hotels at 20% and restuarants; the Pound at its highest against the Dollar and the Euro;  Air Passenger Duty the highest tax on flying in the World, plus all the negative publicity about immigation problems at Heathrow its difficult to imagine a scenario less conducive to tourism to the UK. 

However London is a great place to be with or without an Olympic ticket!  Also the wet weather which we suffered in June seems to be over and at last, in the words of the old West -End musical "Salad Days",  'The sun has got his hat on!  Hip,Hip,Hip Hooray!' The forecast is not too bad either! So please don't give up on coming to London there is still room at the Inn!!

Oil Price Update - July 12

The yardstick North Sea Brent crude oil spot price has recovered above the $100 pb level as predicted might happen in last month's blog.   It is now hovering around $106-108 pb having risen slightly each day for the past few days. 

The consensus is that OPEC would like to see the price settle between $105-$110.  Until now higher than normal US oil stocks and perceived weakness in the world economy have dampened sentiment  with only threats to supply being made by Iran balancing this out.  Last month however saw increased housing starts in the US as well as higher demand for gasoline (petrol) which is likely the reason for the present recovery above $100.   There was a threat from Iran to close off the Straits of Hormuz, the major export route for Gulf oil but it was also announced that the pipelines designed to by-pass the Straits are now open.   Closing off the Straits would certainly be a reason for the price of oil to rise sharply despite the new alternative route.  It would undoubtedly result in a response from the US and the possibility of armed confrontation and result in huge middle east tensions.  Lets hope that it does not come to that especially as it seems there may be some "green shoots" attempting to push up despite the World economic situation.    With no reliable crystal ball available I am going to guess that the oil price may trend a little higher if US economic stats continue to show improvements, however slight they might be......

M4 Re-opened ....Warning re Olympic Routes

Been out of touch with no internet access 'til today fm last Thursday;  so was pleased to see that the M4 reopened early on Friday morning.    I think the reopening could not have been widely reported or seen by drivers over the week-end.  Coming into London on the A3 last night the end of the dual carriage-way of the A3 Kingston By-Pass was solid with traffic for over a mile.  Probably most were avoiding the M4.  Finger crossed the Boston Manor M4 bridges will be OK from now on!!
However!! Drivers should beware that the old M4 Bus Lane (red surface outside lane) between junctions 2 & 3 which was re-opened to all traffic several years ago is again closed to normal traffic.  It is currently exclusively an Olympic Route between 5 a.m. and 10 p.m..   Drivers who use the lane in between these times until the end of the Olympics face £130 fines.  This fine also applies to using olympic lanes operating in the rest of London with £200 fines being levied on parked cars in the lanes. 

I can see huge confusion being caused on these routes.  Regular commuting drivers used to keeping out of bus lanes may find that once olympic routes are in operation that the bus lanes are open and their usual lane to the right of bus lanes has been designated an olympic one.   Regular drivers on these routes will have to use the bus lanes - Confusing or what!!!  The fines above will apply for those caught out by bad signage or ignorance.

LBC Radio have a useful site on road closures http://www.lbc.co.uk/2012-olympics-road-closures-overview-46779

M4 Closure - Further Delay Possible

  As with any building or repair work the time needed to complete is invariably underestimated.

Unfortunately it looks like the M4's Boston Manor Bridge repair is going to take longer to repair than first thought and tomorrow is unlikely to see the M4 reopened.   The Highways Agency site
http://www.highways.gov.uk/roads/23597.aspx is still saying that the M4 will open at 6.00 am tomorrow.  However media reports are now questioning that.

In my earlier post on the closure I was not aware that the authorities only had 30 minutes warning to close the motorway as they discovered from ongoing previous repair work that further cracks had occured despite the repairs.  These had already caused the diversion of heavy vehicles over 7 tonnes to be diverted off the M4 to avoid the Boston Manor Bridge.   Engineers said that with the type of structure they are dealing with, these don't just sag and slowly collapse, they shatter suddenly.  Better safe than sorry then!!!

M4 London End Closed until 12 July! Use the Tube for Heathrow

Last week-end I had a feeling I should use the M3 back home from Windsor Great Park instead of my usual M4 route.  I did not take the M3 and I also decided not to take a precautionary "pit stop" after tea .  BOTH  BIG MISTAKES!!!!

With absolutely no warning signs before getting onto the M4 at Junction 6 we immediately hit almost stationery traffic.  Not too unusual on a Sunday afternoon at 5 ish so we did not worry even tho the fuel was just on a quarter empty and there is fuel on the M4 after junction three (A312 Exit).   One hour and a half later it was obvious that three lanes were merging into a single just before exiting at J3.  Naturally the A312 was solid with confused and frustrated drivers particularly as there were no diversion signs to central London up at that stage.   By this time my amber fuel light was signalling the car needed a top up whilst I was in desperate need of emptying. 

Relief for the car eventually appeared 15 minutes later and fuel worries were over.  However, clearly car-fulls of ladies also had my problem and the queue for the loo at the petrol station was almost as long as the one on the M4.   I decided to chance it and finally arrived home having managed to drive and cross my legs at the same time.  Whilst not recommeded as a driving style its useful to know that in extremis it is possible to "hold on" even as a "mature" person - (which I undoubtedly am!)

I am currently avoiding exiting London on the M4 obviously, but suspect that Westbound traffic out of London will use the either the A4 M40 and the A316/M3 to link with the M25 and thence back onto the M4.  Hence, access roads to them will be hugely congested at rush hour times until after 12th July.......  Good luck if you are travelling via Heathrow - leave masses of time if going by road - I suggest tho', even it the tube is not your usual mode of transport, it is by far and away the safest option at present.

Concordia Captain States "Hand of God" on Him Prevented greater Tragedy

Concordia Aground Off Giglio

CONCORDIA DISASTER - An Observation

 The ill-fated Concordia’ s Captain Schettino claimed yesterday in the Italian media that the “Hand of God” rested on his head and prevented a greater tragedy .  He says that the reef that tore out a large section of the ship’s hull was not on his charts and that only a last second course alteration prevented a much more “serious” head on collision with the submerged rocks.

It is interesting that he used the phrase “hand of God”.  As an ex-Naval officer and (eventually) captain of my own vessel,  I can recall situations, where for no discernible reason, a captain ordered a change of course or action that turned out to have prevented what might have had serious consequences. 

As a young RN Lieutenant I was rightly awed when, as our Frigate slowly left La Spezia harbour, our captain for no apparent reason suddenly stopped both engines, went astern, then brought the ship onto a course about 30 yards to left of our original one.   As we looked to starboard a huge pale underwater block of concrete slipped by just under the surface!  Out Italian hosts had forgotten to mention that there was a WWII jetty that had toppled over into the sea on our route out.  Like the Concordia rocks,  that WWII relic was not on the chart either….

Over the years I was at sea there were many lesser instances of some sort of second sight on the part of  officers of the watch seemingly to be able to predict things - Maybe these were not Schettino's 'Hand of God'  but certainly involved their having exstensive seagoing experience and being able to read situations before they developed into a risk to the ship.

In my own case, I was on an unaccompanied passage from the Comoros Islands in the Indian Ocean up to Mombasa.   Our route North passed well off Zanzibar and Dar es Salaam to make landfall at Pemba Island before steaming on to Mombasa further up the East African coast.   The weather though calm, was totally overcast for the whole four day voyage.  We had no satnav in those days and all we could do was to work on “dead reckoning” (i.e. estimated position from course and speed).  We were unable to take any sun or star sights for the whole voyage and were too far off Africa to get a radar fix.  That was worrying enough for me as the Captain but I comforted myself that Pemba had a large Lighthouse which I should have been able to see at the estimated time of landfall.  This should have been in early morning light.    Even so I could not sleep and got up and went to the bridge.  Something told me all was not right – maybe as Schettino  claimed happened to him,  there was some divine help on hand for me that night.  As I peered over my bows into the dark I was convinced that land was not far ahead.  And so it turned out to be.  The notorious currents off the African coast had brought us almost 6 hours ahead of our dead reckoning position!   Since as we approached land, even the lighthouse was obscured by heavy rain showers , I was glad that sleep had escaped me and that I was on my bridge to support my young and inexperienced  officer of the watch.  Had I stayed in my bunk, my naval career could well have been terminated sooner than I would have wished!  I did offer a short prayer of thanks I recall…  A Greek Skipper of an old tramp ship (SS Paraportiani and now a popular dive site) on a similar route to mine clearly had no such intervention from above.   In October 1967 he put his ship firmly aground well up on the reef which we had sucessfully avoided.  Ironically I was one of two ships sent down from Mombasa to rescue the crew.   On google Earth, you could actually make out the remains of the submerged wreck when I last checked.

The fact is that, even with all the technical advances in navigation and radar systems available today,  ultimately your own eyesight and traditional seamanship skills are the things that should help ensure that groundings like that of the Concordia are avoided.   Before sailing, the ship apparently had electrical problems which have been cited as contributing to the sinking – given that situation, old fashioned seamanship skills would have been even more important.   Despite Concordia's technical problems now being reported, the ship was actually diverted from its normal path to do a close pass to Giglio island.  Looking at the pictures of the stricken vessel, it seems to me that Corcordia was sailing dangerously close to the Island. And apparently at night too.      

However, sadly even the most experienced skipper or sailor can be distracted and the outcome can then end in the loss of a ship, and even worse, lives.  It’s called “Human Error”.   I have my own ‘professional’  opinion on who is to blame for the Concordia disaster but to express it here before the outcome of the Italian investigations and potential trial would not be appropriate.  

Online Holiday Search Survey Surprise Find

Internet Surfing for Holidays - Junior Surf Champ Chelsea Tuhay of Barbados at Bathsheeba Beach

The Travelmole news site today highlighted the surprise results of a survey carried out by Greenlight into the busiest online surfing search days for holidays in the UK.  Carried out in mid-May this year you would naturally assume its got to be over the week-end.  But you would be wrong....Its "Monday B---dy Monday"!   Well I guess that's not so surprising after all given the UK weather so far this year.....Having had a funfilled soggy saturday and sunday and then retuning to the office following a crowded commute to work, the most uplifting thing after your tea/coffee and gossip with your office mates is probably to hit your desktop looking for holidays!  At least you will look as if you are working! 

A few years back at Cheapflights.co.uk. when I was first there, we used to watch patterns in visit activity very carefully (still do I'm certain.).  What was interesting was that it was the lunchtime break time when searches for flights became most active.   Flight search activity would then drop sharply and continue to fall off gradually until early evening.  Then returning workers, fired with the need to get away from work routines and UK weather etc etc., would log-in and start to seek flights to the Med's liveliest resorts and beyond.  The result was a significant spike in flight search activity.  International News events trigger spikes for destinations as well.  When the last Pope died, Rome, which was normally about 20th or below as a popular destination, shot up to second place for about three days as many of the UK's faithful sought to be there for the new Pope's election.

.  One of the most interesting came about one day when two UK premier League footy clubs were fighting out for a place the next European Cup semi-final which was to be played in Europe.  At half-time Team A were ahead and we saw a huge spike in searches for Rome where the semi-final was to be played.  We could even identify that the majority of the hits were coming from Team A's home region.  Then when Team B were ahead the reverse was true.   I can't remember who won but it did show that the internet does have the power to put the public's likes and dislikes on record.  

The internet, being a digital environment, is tailor-made for garnering stats. The scope and power of the Internet to gather intelligence is truely awsome and more than a little worrying as that power can easily become abused by unscrulous businesses or "the Powers that be".  In the UK at least there are rules to prevent the collection of personal data without that person's consent.    However, unfortunately,  rules are made to be circumnavigated,  as we have seen recently in the media in stories about illegal Tax Avoidance . 

On that subject,  APD avoidance can actually be legal.  Its worth taking the Chunnel or a ferry to Europe or to Ireland if you are flying to a higher band APD country, especially as a couple or as a larger party flying in a premium cabin.  A party of 4 flying to Australia for instance will save £736 in Premium Economy or in higher 'turn left' cabins.  That's an awful lot of "tinnies" or Oz Chardonnay to be able to buy and celebrate with when you get there!  Even a party of four travelling to Oz in Economy will save £368 less the cost of the Chunnel/Ferry.

APD - You can lead a horse to water but can't MAKE it drink!

TWO TIER APD FOR REGIONAL AIRPORTS MOOTED

Media reports are now claiming that the Government are considering proposals put forward by Merseyside's John Peel airport to tweak APD by reducing the amount of duty for passenger flying from regional airports.  The recently much mauled Treasury Minister Chloe Smith has apparently admitted she had discussed the proposal when visiting with the airport's operators.  The effect of this self-serving proposal would be that APD would be increased at Heathrow and Gatwick to compensate for the "loss" incurred.  The Merseyside originators of this plan clearly believe that European business people and tourists (especially keen Beatles fans) will be attracted to the North's regional airports.  NB Merseyside has only European routes at present which carry the £13 economy APD rate for Europe. 

The fact is that, as the caption infers, you might try to make Merseyside (and other regional airports) more attractive by reducing regional APD, but you are unlikely to change traditional traffic patterns.  The majority of the UK's overseas visitors come via Heathrow and Gatwick.  An increase
in APD at these airports would be wrong for two reasons:-

A. It is an additional deterrent tax on the UK's inbound tourism and on outbound and inbound business passengers. Between them they carried 103.2 million passengers in 2011 - nearly half of all UK  passenger traffic.

Viz.  Heathrow Stats

Number of passengers arriving and departing per day: average 190,100 (split 50/50 between arriving and departing)

Number of passengers arriving and departing in 2011: 69.4 million

Percentage of international passengers in 2011: 93% (64.7 million)

Percentage of business travellers in 2011: 37.1% (26.0 million)

Percentage of other leisure travellers in 2011: 62.9% (43.4 million)

Percentage of transfer passengers in 2011: 34.6% (24.0 million)

Viz. Gatwick Stats

Average number of daily passengers: 92,650

Total number of passengers 2011/12: 33.8 million

Busiest day ever recorded: 17 August 2008, 137,166 passengers

Busiest year: 2007/08, 35.6 million

B. To make APD less expensive for working families in the North at the expense of those in the South East would not be fair or democratic.

The fairest and undoubtedly the best solution would be to reduce, preferably to cut APD entirely .  That's not going to happen whilst the Government is struggling to reduce the national debt inherited from the previous Government.  

Heathrow - More Political Prevarication and Delays

Ready to Split?

The FT today reports "deep splits" between the coalition parties over whether to build a third runway.   Actually both the Conservatives and Lib-Dems went into the last election rejecting the third runway option which the Labour government had already approved.  In the honeymoon period after the election there was no surprise when HTR3 was cancelled by the coalition having secured a number of West London seats. 

Now with increasing pressure from the industry, business and the unions as well as from evidence from positive independent academic studies the Tories are having to reconsider their position. Meantime the LibDems seem absolutely to have set their faces against any runway capacity expansion in the South-East. Unfortunately they are not saying how they would propose to maintain, let alone increase, the current UK economy's level of overseas trade without that extra capacity.   Hence the split.  

Its clear from the FT article today http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6bfb7010-c37b-11e1-ad80-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1zSEfGVCN  that as usual, delay rather than dispatch is the watchword on Westminster delivering a clear aviation policy, particularly as far as HTR3 is concerned.

A Government paper calling for evidence from the aviation industry as a whole about how to preserve the UK as an international hub is already three months overdue.  Sadly it now looks as if the Government will throw the ball back to the industry when that paper does come out the aim of which is to establish ways to preserve the UK as a leading aviation hub.  This also perhaps means that Government will be calling for a delay of several years before conclusions are arrived at from evidence supplied by the aviation industry.  The delay is presented as being in order "to give the industry time to develop properly costed responses".  This is so ironic in that the industry is absolutely clear that Heathrow is already a major European hub and that in order for it to continue as such it needs more capacity to compete with the likes of Frankfurt which has four runways.... 

The problem with politics is that politicians think in terms of the next election and how best to get a majority government.  This mind-set leads to short-term tactics driven by political expediency.  These criteria do not deliver the best strategies for ensuring long term economic success.  By delaying feedback from the industry for another couple of years and pushing back final decisions on airport strategy until potentially after the next election, the UK not only risks, but already is, being left left behind by its European rivals when it comes to connectivity to the growing markets of the Far East and South America. 

We all have to hope that the Eurozone crisis will be sorted out eventually.  That may take several if not a decade, years to achieve.  Sadly the delay in taking the vital decision about increasing UK airport capacity in the South East means that even if they do come up with a strategy,  lead times for runway expansion are typically at least five to seven of years.   Consequently, with surplus capacity already a fact in European competitors' airports,  by then the UK will be ill-placed to compete and will continue to loose ground to competitors for access to BRICS markets.