U-Turns and Political Expediency -

Waiting for a viable UK Aviation Policy

This week, if one believes reports in the National Papers, The Prime Minister may be prepared to consider a U-Turn on the politically thorny issue of a 3rd runway at Hethrow to which he has been implaccably opposed since before the election.  In recent years Governments have become remarkably flexible about countenancing policy and tax changes over the past few years when it comes to appeasing voters and maintaining or gaining seats.  Viz. the recent dropping of the rediculous VAT changes on "hot pasties" after public derision and also the infamous so-called "Granny" tax. 

On policy changes, the Coalition's reversal of the previous Government's decision to back the third runway at Heathrow is an example of political manifesto tweaking, where to improve chances of winning crucial West London seats, the then opposition guaranteed to drop the 3rd runway.    Winning seats is all very well but the independent research and industry feedback to the Government when after they took power demonstrated that the Heathrow option is by far and away the most cost effective option and one that will keep London competitive with its near Europe airport competitors well into the 21st century.  According to the study by the respected Oxford Economics, failure to allow the third runway or new runway capacity will cost the UK £8.5 billion per year by 2021.  Furthermore, the study predicts that 141,400 jobs will be lost by 2021 with no new Heathrow capacity which will have a significant knock-on effect on the West London economy.

Other options, even should they be practical ones, and not just political papering over the need for more capacity in London and the South East,  will take well into the second and even the third decades to become operational.  Many believe that by that time the UK and the City may have lost vital ground against our business rivals in Europe.

So if reports are to be believed ,  whilst the "Pros" might be looking for a reversal from the PM and the "Anti's" considering their political and other options to block the runway if he does,  nothing is going to happen politically until after the next General Election in 2015.  Who knows what policies or lack of them will result then ?

We still have to wait for this summer's (if we everhave one!) much heralded  Government White Paper clarifying the Government's policy on aviation and also on the HS2 (the High Speed rail link to Birmingham and evenually beyond to Manchester).  Current cost estimates for the HS2 are £34 Billion.  Politically this might be an attractive project but Economically the cost does not seem to justify a 20 minute reduction in travel time to Birmingham.   Especially when offset against the destruction of homes and the environmental damage the new HS2 rail will cause. Many expert commentators have pointed this out.   However,  the media is again reporting that from within the corridors of power in Whitehall and Westminster there are signs of unease about the cost and the effectiveness of the HS2 scheme.  So a change of policy may be waiting in the wings.

Whilst there is a lot of rhetoric from Westminster about the need for an infrastructure appropriate for the 21st Century we have yet to see any projects definitely approved and ground broken, all to the detriment of UK Plc.  This is a wild guess, and call me a cynic, but I am wondering whether the forthcoming White Paper will be released in the middle of the Olympics just in case there are some U-turns that need to be downplayed.