London Runway Capacity - What to Do?

In the face of Government opposition to a third runway at Heathrow (should that be pronounced ROW?) many views have been expressed about how to address lack of runway capacity.  Yesterday the London Evening Standard, London's "local paper" printed the following article: http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/london/stansted-heathrow-and-gatwick-airports-all-need-extra-runways-7785340.html

What is evident is that most everyone agrees that there is a need to have more capacity if the UK is to keep up with meeting the 21st century's expected demand for air travel - whether for tourism or business needs.  The UK is notorious for NIMBY attitudes (Not In My Back-Yard) and understanably new airport runways bring out the NIMBY battalions in droves.  However, when national interests are at stake, subject to proper compensation, assistance in relocation and environmental considerations for those of the public most affected, there should be a fast track to getting the job done.

I live under the flight path for Heathrow 12 miles away and on a busy day planes come over approximately every 90 to 120 seconds.  The 120 second gaps are for the super jumbo planes whose passage create huge turbulence for following aircraft.  Today, there are no aircraft so the flight path has been changed and its very quiet.  I have no complaints  about that! However,  I have neighbours who used to be rabid HACAN  supporters who oppose any expansion at Heathrow, but I would like to think that the economic recovery and the future competitivenes of UK PLC has perhaps cooled their ardour. 

I was happy to see in the Standard article that the idea about using Northolt I highlighted last November is now being considered.  Furthermor, the Thames Estuary proposal is receiving the thumbs down from many experts and bankers alike (£50 billion and 20 years to achieve).   Even the head of HACAN has apparently said that the Estuary airport would wipe out 100,000 jobs around Heathrow.

Well, experts and pro and con partisans can propose and discuss all they like, but until the Government's Transport policy is actually announced UK aviation is in limbo.  All we can do short term is wait and worry whether London and its airports can cope with the influx of Olympic visitors.

In Flight Connectivity - No Escape

Sony PXC 450 Active Sound Reductions Head Phones

Before I went on holiday recently I saw a news item that TAP are introducing in-flight connectivity on their new trans-Atlantic route.  I have serious reservations about the prospect of becoming a captive audience in a plane for the duration of a long flight and recalled that I had once written about the advantages of being out of contact during flights.

A few years ago before Skype and smartphones I was asked by BT to write an article about the emerging trend of video conferencing and how it freed up Executive time by saving out-of-office visits and the neccessity of long-haul flights by enabling face to face (literally) meetings as well as team conference calls between international offices.  The Company I was consulting to then had offices all over the world in Australasia; the U.S.and over Europe and had embraced video conferencing enthusiastically.

Mobile phones were already giving 24/7 access to busy execs; thus aboard an aircraft was the only place then when an exec could get some down-time to themselves.  Flying provided valuable personal time, enabling people to catch up on think-time, plan ahead or just refresh mentally and just catch up on an inflight movie or read that novel unlooked at due to pressure of work.  In fact my client CEO at the time valued his trans-Atlantic and Australasian destination flights for those very reasons.

In today's world though with near addiction to use of Smart Phones, Tablets, Note Books and laptops the thought of in-air universal connectivity is not a happy one for me.  Forgive me if I suggest that the associated babel of several hundred people accessing the internet and smart phone in an aluminium tube is not too attractive.  And that's just the business people; add the potential for the noise from kids playing games on-line and families "phoning home or ahead", then you may understand why I cannot feel overjoyed by the planned introduction by TAP of Internet OnAir service in-flight connectivity on their Airbus A330 transatlantic routes, or indeed by any other airline.  BA's transatlantic business only flight from the City Airport would be an exception but I am not likely to fly that route....  .

Its no wonder that there are now quiet zone carriages on many rail routes.  However even in these carriages people ignore the quite zone signs - Aaargh!.  One wonders what your thoughts are on enjoying the cheek-by-jowl company of a motor mouthed person from Gatwick to JFK in the brave new world of  24/7 connectivity and no place to hide electronically. Personally I am thinking of investing in those (very) expensive sound reduction earphones above.

 By all means comment! 

Oil Price - Can airlines and motorist hope for a fall?

Jet Fuel (Kerosene) "Colonial Grade"

In 1974 when the "Oil shock" hit the West it would have been inconceivable that Brent Crude could hit $150 a barrel.  But it did as we now know to our cost!  With all the bad news from the recent past and current Eurozone problems one has to look very hard to find any comforting news at all. 

However I regularly check the IATA.org site to see what the jet-fuel price is doing and just recently it has started to drift down to a current US$130 a barrel.  That's 5.4% down on a month ago and a little down on a year ago.  The average jet fuel price to date this year is US$134.8 per barrel which, even if the average remains the same for the rest of 2012, still leaves global aviation with US$41 billion more to pay than last year's fuel bill.  (For IATA methodology please go to: 
http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/economics/fuel_monitor/Pages/methodology_impact.aspx ).

As an ex commodities futures trader and analyst I was also interested to see  the chart for 'spot' Brent Crude oil this week had formed an interesting pattern that chartists call a "double top".  This is usually interpreted as signaling a downturn in prices.   Given the linkage between Crude Oil prices and Jet-Fuel its not surprising that charts for the latter are showing similar patterns.

I am certainly not an expert "Chartist" these days,  but this week anyway, the signs are that the market may be turning down.  Oil industry market sentiment for the next week on TradingCharts.com is 64% bearish but this is a short term view in what is a fairly volatile marketplace.  As a famous American 20th century banker once sagely said: "the only thing certain about commodity prices is that they will fluctuate".  But for the present let's hope the chart is signalling a down trend!  As evidenced by both BA and Lufthansa's company losses, airlines could well do with a drop in their fuel bills!

Lufthansa Hit By Frankfurt Night Flights Ban

Since last October Frankfurt airport has enjoyed the luxury of four runways versus Heathrow's two.....  However before the fourth runway was due to open, local opposition culminated in a ruling by a lower regional court in Kassel to ban take-offs and landings at the airport between 23:00 and 05:00.  This has just been upheld by Germany's federal administrative court in Leipzig.  Lufthansa reckons that the night flight ban will reduce Lufthansa’s annual earnings by €40m (The last year net loss was €13m). The average number of aircraft movements during the "whole night", from 22:00 until 06:00, will also need to be reduced from 150 planned flights to 133.  

Heathrow by comparison has always been a 24 hour airport without a court imposed night ban.  However in the interests of the airport's users and local communities it operates certain restrictions and rules regarding night flights on a voluntary basis.  These are complicated and the aircraft type and its official noise footprint dictate the types of aircraft that operators  are allowed to fly at night and when.  The rules are complicated and can be found at: http://www.heathrowairport.com/static/Heathrow_Noise/Downloads/PDF/Nightflights11.pdf
Essentially the 'Night period' is 2300 to 0700 during which period the noisiest types of aircraft  may not be operated.  This means aircaft that have been certified as having an EPNdB of more than 86 may not be operated, whilst planes certified as having less than 86 EPNdB may be operated all night. Because there is no court imposed ban, when unusual circumstances, such as the Icelandic volcano ash-cloud disruption, occur it is possible for the voluntary restictions to be easily lifted to enable any backlog of flights to be cleared.

Reportedly Lufthansa's CEO Christopher Franz joked, in an apparent dig at Government interference as to how airlines are allowed to operate, “The (Frankfurt) night flight ban – that is the German equivalent of not creating a third runway in Heathrow.”     The German court ruling has clearly had a significant negative effect on Lufthansa.  It would appear that without the losses that Mr Franz attributes to the night flight ban, together with his other cost savings achieved in his first year as CEO,  Lufthansa might well have expected to scrape into the black.

APD and the Caribbean

All Quiet On the Western Coast - The New Lime Grove Upmarket Mall at Holetown, Barbados

Whilst I was on holiday in Barbados (yes lucky me I admit) I do keep an eye on the local papers and the following from the "Barbados Advocate" caught my eye at the end of April.

"There is the intention to double the current bilateral trade between the United Kingdom and Barbados in the next few years.

This is the premise of the Convention for the Avoidance of Double Taxation and the Prevention of Fiscal Evasion with respect to taxes on Income and Capital signed by UK Minister for the Caribbean, Henry Bellingham, and Minister of International Business and International Transport, George Hutson, yesterday.

Bellingham noted that currently the bilateral trade stood at £100 million and outlined that the capacity for increased trade was there, especially that of Barbadian exports to the UK.

“I think that there is a huge amount of potential between our two countries because I want to see Bajan exports coming to UK, tourism being exported to the UK even more, I want to see more Brits coming here, but we also want valued goods,” he said."

The last paragraph did cause me to smile wryly.  Mr Bellingham, apart from being MP for NorthWest Norfolk is  Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office which includes the remit for the Caribbean.  His ministerial briefs also include the United Nations, Africa, and other Overseas Territories.   As such he must have to travel by air frequently - fortunately for him I am sure his travel is paid for by you and me.  Just as well as most of his overseas responsibilities appear to be in the highest mileage bands of Air Passenger Duty!!

He should note that  the cost of APD went up by 8% this April and that with Economy passengers paying £81 a head APD for (Band C) Caribbean destinations British tourists will need more than his just "wanting to see more Brits" to encourage them to fly to Barbados.  Sadly,  two UK cruises have apparently also decided to cut Barbados recently.  The effects of APD both directly and indirectly on this lovely island are definitely beginning to show.  Hoteliers are talking about 50% cuts in booking rates year on year currently.  The Almond Beach Hotel resort is in trouble with the potential for the loss of 600+ jobs reportedly on the line, a huge blow to this island's economy.  Even two years ago Bajans were confident that their place in the sun was assured.  However, the realities of high fuel costs and retrenchment in tourists' budgets are now being recognised - for instance there are  now even more "For Sale" signs up along the beach and near beach properties beside the West coasts Highway 1 than there were six months ago.  Some being offered at significan discounts to a year ago.

As a minister of the Government Mr Bellingham should have reflected as he signed the agreement with Barbados,  it is all very well the UK  being "open for business" and wishing to double the amount of trade between Barbados and the UK,  but with fuel costs where they are, together with  such a belting great Tax on air travel, both items create a significant barrier to entry and trade.  Hence, it might be a while before the laudable objectives of the treaty he just signed are reached.

Passenger Experience - Blast from Barbados

Passenger Experience - Blast from Barbados

Given that this old cannon on the lawn of the excellent Bajan B&B, Bayfield House has not been fired since the late 1700's there is no danger of it responding to my lighted taper!!  It is however metaphorically pointed at BA for the way in which the 3+ hour delay to our flight from Gatwick to Barbados was dealt with. 

We arrived in the departure lounge the usual 2 hrs in advance of the scheduled 11.20 flight to find that a 1 hour 10 min  delay was posted. There had been no text or call about the delay to my mobile. Nor were there any subsequent updates on the screen (or on the BA.com site either).  Hence constant vigilance was needed to check the boarding time which was eventually posted at about 13.30.  Taking our seats in premium economy we then had to wait more than an hour in the cabin with no aircon or ventilation.  The reasons for our delay and lack of a/c were explained by an apologetic captain as soon as everyone had boarded. The delay was apparently caused by an unusual technical problem in that the waste valve for the 777's lavatory system was frozen and the waste tank could not be emptied.  Eventually about 15 mins before we pulled back from the stand a portable a/c unit was attached forward.  However it appeared that this only serviced the 777's front Club and First sections.  Certainly the premium economy and economy section did not appear to get any benefit at all nor did they get offered drinks.  What was therefore even more galling was that whilst we could see the club section passengers were continually being plied with the usual refreshments, no one else aft of the club section was even offered a glass of water, despite the rising temperature in the after cabins.  Naturally the loo's were out of bounds as well! Not good PR for an airline that we are told is there to serve. 

Arriving at Bridgetown, since there were no other scheduled landings when we eventually arrived, we actually cleared immigration very quickly.  Sadly the momentum rapidly tailed off at the baggage carousel.  There was a considerable delay before the first bags from the flight tipped onto the carousel.  However instead of a continuous stream of luggage it appeared as if they were using wheel barrows  to transfer from the 'plane!! a few bags would appear then a prolonged gap......more bags then another gap .... our smallest case came quite early but the next one came over twenty minutes later leaving one more to come.  Mercifully, eventually it did as we were beginning to panic considering we once had a case make the flight to Barbados via Miami arriving 36 hours later .... The bag was literally the last off the carousel, just under an hour after the first bag appeared.   How is it that three bags left at the bag-drop at the same time can take the best part of an hour to arrive separately on the carousel??

I suspect it may have been the orange "heavy" labels on the last two bags and the bagage handlers at Gatwick getting their own back. Has anyone got a theory why baggage get separated like that?

"Though the Rain it raineth every day" -Shakespeare

Now back from our trip to Barbados where it also rains - even on holiday people.  The only difference being that the temperature is in the eighties (or high twenties if you prefer C to F) and that it's normally only showers. But what showers! Most unusually one day we had monsoon rain for the whole day.  The swimming pool actually rose over four inches just from the rain.

By the way that's the road outside Bayfield House - not a local river in spate!! Weather patterns all over the world seem to be changing and prolonged rain is unusual in April in Barbados - April showers yes - but unlike the London we left behind for 3 weeks it did not "raineth every day" and the Bajan sun is never far behind the rain showers.   



I have a couple more blogs from the Bajan interlude but 3 week's post + unpaking now call