APD - Chancellor Expected to Hike it again

 

This Week's Mini Budget Expected to Raise APD AGAIN

Survey finds half of 26 UK airports expect passenger numbers to fall  if Air Passenger Duty raised by 2.5% 

I am old enough to remember when a post war Labour Government Chancellor, keen to increase its spending power, decided that the good voters of the UK were getting their booze and fags too cheaply.  So they whacked on a huge increase in duty for wine, beer, spirits and tobacco.  Predictably there were cries of dismay from those addicted to their alcohol and nicotine.  Also, predictably, there were those who praised the Chancellor from moral and health points of view.  Then there were those who saw an opportunity to benefit from the large increases - namely smugglers who brought contraband in from abroad. (Tho' the Gaulloise and Gitannes brands of french fags with their pungent smoke did not go down well with Brit smokers).

The result of the large duty increases was a surprise and dissappointment to one group and one person in particular - the Treasury and the Chancellor!  The result was that following the duty increases there was a massive drop in the income received by the Treasury from drink and tobacco sales.  It was a clear case of "the more you tax, the less you receive".

The survey, (see E-tid http://www.e-tid.com/airports-warn-osborne-of-eye-watering-apd-levels/68406/ ) conducted by the Airport Operators Association (AOA), found that 25% of airports believe passenger numbers will fall by more than 5% in 2013/14 as a direct result of the latest planned APD increase, with a further 25% expecting them to fall by 2%-5%.
It also revealed that 73% of airports are ‘very worried’ by the Government’s plan to increase APD, while 83% feel that ‘current levels of APD are having an impact on whether airlines choose to fly from our airport’. Every airport in the survey backed calls for a freeze in APD until the Treasury has undertaken a full review of its impact on the UK economy. ABTA also announced the results of a survey finding that two-thirs of those polled think APD is already set too high.  They also found support for and independent review.

The call for a review is also backed by airlines and the tourism industry, but so far this has been ignored by the Chancellor.  There is perhaps an apt analogy here with the Chancllore being likened  to 18th Centuty medical doctors who "bled" their patients of copious amounts of blood in the firm belief that it was best practice to help patients to recover.  This was despite the fact that there was no evidence that bleeding was beneficial.  We know now it wasn't.  Thus, until the Treasury has  research from an independent review, there is no evidence about the overall effect of APD on the UK's economy as a whole.  Interestingly ABTA's poll published today also found evidence that the Treasury is not convinced of the need for a review - how 18th Century is that!!!

The argument for a proper and independent review for the need for and the effect of very high levels of duty on flights from the UK on the UK economy is not only sensible but it is vital.  APD is a tax on one of the most important industries essential for the UK's economic recovery.   The swinging increases in APD coincided with the 2008 recession.  However since that time overall international passenger traffic has managed to recover (e.g. the 2012 Olympic effect).  This may well have masked any negative effect  because of higher levels of APD on Tresury receipts.  But that is not the whole picture...The Dutch found with their APD that there was a more profound effect on their economy as a whole.  Expected receipts from APD were in fact dwarfed by the negative effect it was having on their economy as a whole.  Sensibly they dropped the duty after one year.

One of the other effects of the Dutch APD was to encourage passengers to pop over the national borders to nearby airports to take flights which were not taxed.  In the UK some people have apparently been doing that, especially where  long haul flights are concerned.  Northern Ireland has (quietly) ditched APD.  There are strong indications that UK regions may well follow .  Wales is likely to, and one can imagine Scotland following.  The regions all want their airports to be attractive to airlines and to prosective business travellers and tourists.  A hike this week in APD will make the ability to drop APD locally because of devolution will become ever more attractive to the regions.  Announcing an independent review about the need for and effect of APD on the UK economy (not just the Chancellors duty receipts) will do much to assure aviation, business and tourism that the Chancllor is serious about helping Britain recover - not just balancing the books he inherited from the previous Government.

6.7 Million Jobs Supported by UK Aviation

 

 

 

 

 Aviation Foundation Group Issues Report

 

 

The group surprisingly consists of rivalsf British Airways and Virgin Atlantic plus Heathrow and Manchester Airports.  The report underlines the huge impact aviation has on the UK economy.  Basically three million people work in tourism related businesses whilst an additional 3.7 million work for overseas companies who presence in the UK largelyrelies on the UK's network of routes overseas.

The group published the following infograffic which gives a clear picture of the diversity of aviation's areas of influence on the UK economy.

 

 

APD gets the boot in N. Ireland -Wales likely to follow!



RIP APD ?

On 1st Jan 2013 it will be possible to fly direct long haul routes from N. Ireland without incurring the much disliked and expensive Air Passenger Duty due to new local legislation.  APD is charged on all flights leaving UK airports on a four tier scale based on the distance from London to the Capital City of the destination country.  There are two levels depending on the class of cabin - Economy and Premium  Its possible that the Welsh National Assembly will follow suit in due course when the Assembly is granted the right to determine local taxes.   This is likely after the Silk Commission  backed devolving a range of taxation powers to the Welsh National Assembly, provided Wales votes for it in a referendum.  

This underlines the fact that APD is seen by business as a tax on international trade and tourism at a time when it is obvious (that is except to certain Westminster politicians and Treasury manadrins it seems) there is a huge need to stimulate international opportunities and growth in these areas.  The need to reduce, or better still, cut entitely is something that I have personally, and on behalf of Cheapflights, been claiming since 2006!  With this latest news I am reminded of the old (Hong Kong) Chinese proverb: "If you are stuck behind a red traffic light,  you should honk your horn long and hard and the light WILL eventually turn green......!

If the Wesh do vote for the Silk Commission recommendations and APD is also eventually axed in Wales, its not difficult to see UK air passengers from the South and West of England heading up the M4 motorway for Cardiff.   Long haul flights from Cardiff rather than to Gatwick or Heathrow will cost hundreds less for families going for mid and long haul holiday destinations.    How long then before Scotland follows the Welsh and England is left alone in the UK with the regressive and anti-recovery Air Passenger Duty?

Trade War Averted? EU Aviation ETS Set Aside (pro tem)

The EU has bowed (temporarily at least) to international threats to retaliate with a trade war over the EU's unilaterateral attempt to impose its emissions carbon trading scheme (ETS) globally.  The EU intended to impose the ETS on on international airlines operating flights to and from non-EU countries at an estimated cost to aviation of 1.4 Bn Euros annually.  The Commissioner has now "stopped the clock" for one year accepting that the ICAO are working on a global version of the ETS.

Given the EU Commissioner for Climate Action Connie Hedegaard's firm resolve originally to impose this unilateral legislation, this is an (albeit temporary) u-turn. What was so incredible about the EU's stance was that the ICAO has been promoting this international solution to world aviation's carbon emissions for sometime.

 My personal view is that the EU Commissioner appears to have a somewhat evangelical attitude to the climate stemming from her long involvement in environmental campaigning in her native Denmark. Whilst she is clearly committed to addressing climate change issues, it was somewhat naieve of her to think that she could impose EU legislation internationally.   At the beginning of 2012 she was absolutely determined to go ahead with the ETS in 2013 despite international opposition from the US, Russia, China, India and Saudi Arabia.  These and other countries have made it very clear they will not submit to her dictat.  Meantime they have banned their airlines from co-operating with the EU and threatened trade retaliations.

Its clear from her move that the Eurozone's present economic problems have injected a large dose of realism into the Commissioner's thinking.  This is not surprising given the threat by China to cancel its aircaft purchases with Airbus and sabre rattling by the other major economic powers.  Why risk a trade war when there has always been an internationally supported global emissions trading scheme for aviation? 

Aviation and airlines are in an international business.  It is unfortunate therfore that the Commissioner has only stopped the clock in respect of international flights in and out of the EU.  All internal flights will still be subject to the EU ETS legislation.  This will raise the odd situation that flights into EU countries from any Non-EU European country will not be required to comply with the 2013 deadline.   Unsurprisingly given the cost implications of the ETS for airlines, calls for an across the board delay are being made to level the playing field for all airlines using EU airports, at least until the ICAO have been given a chance to ratify a global solution...

World Weather - It worth checking your destination's climate before booking dates.



 

 

Venice suffered another flooding this week-end the highest tidal high water mark since 2008.  Heavy Rain plus high tides and strong winds rather than rising sea levels or sinking Venice are to blame we are told.  We will have to wait until 2014 I believe before the currently delayed opening of a flood gate system to protect the city. 

The US East coast and the Caribbean have had hurricane Sandy and follow up storms that have left the US East Coast in chaos .  However, at least the US Mid-West states are not claiming that the hurricane is  God's punishment on the "Blue" East and North East States for voting for President Obama's re-election!  Not yet anyway!

Closer to home, I was interested to hear from a Spanish waiter friend at my local cafe that he is delighted to be in drizzly, damp Chelsea, because where he comes from in Southern Spain the weather at preseant is absolutely foul!

I recall being in Mauritius and being told by the hotel management that the residents were "very lucky" to be there to witness a cyclone.  Hopeful marketing ploy perhaps?  I would describe the event more as being "interesting" as we watched the beach disappear under tumultuous surf and paddled through the open common parts of the hotel under wind bucking brollies.  Mauritius is a long way to go to experience something one can usually "enjoy" back home quite regularly.

Well I guess the point of these wanderings is to commend would be tourists to always check out independent weather overviews of the climate in any destination you are considereing visiting.  Don't rely on travel agents' brochures - do a little bit of online checking about local weather at the time of year you are planning to go before committing hard earned holiday funds to somewhere just because the beach or country looks great in the brochure.    Also just because a beach destination is in a region that you have always believed to be hot have a look at sea temperature charts  - The UK Met Office have a good one on :
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/monitoring/climate/surface-temperature/oceans-and-seas
Dubai and Taba have cold water in the winter months which came as a complete surprise to me when I tried out a dip.  A hot beach and sand does not always equate to warm sea water! Other water temp. sources are often found on Scuba Diving sites.

I was however expecting cold water when I went to stay in Cape Town. If you check out pics for famous C.T. beaches like Llandudno you will see that invariably whilst the beach is crowded the water isn't!    When asking where they swam in Cape Town......  Oh! they said "Warmer Water?" just go round the to Muizenberg on the other side of the "False Cape".  It's more protected there from the Atlantic.  Well I would have had to have gone several hundred miles up the East coast towards Plettenburg before anything like warmish water occured to tempt my toes.  Cape Town is a great place to visit but not for a traditional beach holiday.  By the way when we got to Muizenberg  beach, the beautiful silver beach sand was flying horizontally off the beach and covering the coastal road and car parks - I joked that if we had left the hire car there for a couple of hours it would have been sand-blasted back to the metal!

Muizenberg Beach (©South African Tourism )

Its definitely worth researching your proposed destination yourself rather than relying on adverts and brochures.   Check the seasonal weather patterns and water As they say in the Army, "Time in reconaissance is seldom wasted"!

PS Apologies for being "Off Air" since mid Oct...

Heathrow Pollution Report

 

 

 

HEATROW POLLUTION REPORT BY MIT

 "He Who Pays The Piper Calls the Tune"

Climate and the environment are major concerns. How the perceived threats to both are approached do have significant ramifications for us all. If you have concerns about global warming you should read Michael Crighton's novel "State of Fear".  See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Fear.   Particularly so if you have read the most recent news that there is evidence that the climate has been in a period of cooling for the past decade or more.  The book demonstrates how industry, politicians and partisan groups on either side of the global warming argument tend to support their interests with selective stats or with scientific studies which they have commissioned.

Predictably in 2004 at the height of the global warming scare when the book was written, many climate change advocates criticised the science in the book. This was despite the fact that the author used a multitude of published papers on the subject from the scientific community. To his credit the author does not come down one side of the global warming debate or the other but leaves conclusions to his readers. He does suggest though that so called independent studies commissioned by third parties tend to obtain conclusions slewed to reflect their sponsors' interests.

The current Government review by Sir Howard Davies on the need for more runway capacity in the South East to meet the commercial challenges of the 21st Century, has until 2015 to publish its findings. Meantime proponents of a third Heathrow runway and other proposed solutions, most notably Mayor Boris Johnson's Thames Estuary project, continue to add more "evidence" to the review process. The most recent offering is that "Premature deaths from Heathrow pollution would treble by 2030if a third runway is built". This is according to an academic study published by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology laboratory for aviation and the environment. Viz: a report on the air quality impacts of UK airport capacity expansion.

The key findings from the study are:
 
UK airport emissions today cause about 110 early deaths per year, of which 50 are due to Heathrow.

                        ·By 2030, this figure will increase by 170% even without airport capacity expansion.

                        ·An expanded Heathrow would cause 150 early deaths per year in 2030.

        ·In comparison, a new Thames Estuary hub airport (to replace Heathrow) would cause 60-70% fewer early deaths due to the location of the airport with respect to the population and the prevailing wind direction.

 
The fact that the report claims that if Heathrow operations were replaced with a new hub in the Thames estuary it would significantly reduce the number of deaths concerns me slightly. It seems a very convenient and timely contribution to the debate about the accepted need to provide the South East, and London in particular, with increased runway capacity. But - its "scare tactics" approach seems very similar to the Government's 2006 Stern Review on climate change. The dire environmental predictions of this report helped the Government to introduce swingeing increases in Air Passenger duty by presenting the tax to voters as a necessary environmental one. Such was the concerns at the time that the Bishop of London infamously stated: “It is a Sin to Fly!” In fact the Government later admitted that APD was actually a revenue raising tax to address the UK's enormous deficit and had nothing to do with the environment.

Unlike the Stern Review I do not have any reason to doubt the conclusions of the MIT report just published. However, like Michael Crighton I do have a view on the timing and the incidental support for the Thames Estuary solution. After all there are other solutions being put forward besides Boris Island - the reference to that location alone seems more than coincidental at this time.

 

Plane Quiet Zones Backed in Travelmole Poll

Travelmole the internet travel news site often has simple "Yes" or "No" click on polls about travel news and issues.  Their poll on Air Asia's move to create quiet zones came down heavily in support of the idea.

Mole Poll

' AirAsia X gives kids the boot - Under 12s banned from 'quiet' zone' Good idea ?
YES 85.65 %
NO 14.35 %

 

I cross the Atlantic once - sometimes twice - a year.  If possible I always travel Premium Economy (despite business rate APD being applied to my tickets).  I normally travel before Christmas or Easter and naturally the flights do have a large proportion of families travelling for the holiday breaks.   What I have noticed  is that the business class cabin has a very high number of (obviously) wealthy young familes travelling, often with two or three small children.  A much higher proportion compared with further back in the 'plane.  Therefore it's often the case that there is a fair bit of noise in business class compared to the "Cheap Seats" in the rear of the aircraft.

Whether its the fact that many yummy mummies normally don't  have to deal with their kids when at home and their nanny is travelling with the family back in coach class, I don't know.   But I do know that there is generally much more kid's noise coming from the front cabin than in Premium Economy.   Some families are OK of course! So I guess the answer is to invest in a pair of really expensive and effective noise reduction earphones and avoid being considered an antisocial (old!) reactionary for asking the parents to deal with their kids anti-social behaviour.

ATOL Certificates - Complete Consumer protection? Not quite.....



Great idea but not yet complete Holiday Protection


When Neville Chamberlain returned from making the Anglo-German agreement in Munich in September 1938 he stepped from the aircraft waving the accord in the air proclaiming "Peace in our Time!!!"  He was echoing a previous Prime Minister, Benjamin Disraeli, who used the same words sixty years previously when returning from The Congress of Berlin in 1878.   Well we unfortunately know the worth of Chamberlain's scrap of paper.  Germany invaded the Sudetanland the day after Chamberlain returned and WWII exploded the Peace in our Time myth a year after.   Hopefully the ATOL Certificate launched today will prove to be worth more and the time and effort that has gone into its creation.

The Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) chief executive Mark Tanzer welcomed the launch  of the long awaited ATOL Certificate which must now be issued with ATOL protected holiday packages to the buying public.  He warned however, that confusion would remain due to the fact that protection depends on several factors. "Abta estimates that about 50% of holiday arrangements sit outside the Atol scheme." He continued: "Atol Certificates are only evidence of Atol protected holidays. There is still much confusion about what holiday arrangements are or are not protected by Atol.  He said Abta's Protection Checklist would help holidaymakers understand what to look for.   To view the checklist go to ABTA's press release and click on the word "website" which will bring up a pdf document : http://www.abta.com/about/news/view/523 
 The ATOL Certificate is a welcome step in helping customers understand what protection is (may be) included in their holiday package.  However it is not a sure-fire guarantee that if your holiday company fails you will receive compensation or be repatriated.  Take some time to read ABTA's check-list BEFORE you commit to buying:

You should also know that:
• ATOL bookings made before October 1st, 2012 do not require an ATOL certificate whatever the departure date
• The following are exempt from the ATOL scheme of financial protection:
   o Corporate sales
   o Certain sales where the customer’s credit card is used by the agent for flight only
   o Flight only sales made by airline ticket agents.

The ABTA check list is very comprehensive so do take time to check their site and download their PDF document for peace of mind.   As Mark Tanzer stated only about 50% of holidays are covered by ATOL and the check list will help you to determine what cover (or not) you might be getting with your holiday purchase......

Merde Alors!! What is THAT doing in the pool!!!



OMG!

An article from the Times reported in E-Tid, the travel news site, caught my eye and  got me thinking again about differing standards of behaviour amongst nationalities and cultures and how international travel sometimes brings tourists face to face with these behavioural differences.   

"A lawyer representing 140 families who fell ill at the Holiday Village Red Sea in Sharm el Sheikh this summer has described conditions as horrific, with human faeces in swimming pools and puddles of vomit in dining areas. It is marketed by First Choice, which said it will continue to sell holidays at the resort and has taken extra measures to tackle the pools and food issues (Times)."

Anyone who has stayed in one of the Sinai resorts will know the very cosmopolitan mix of nationalities staying at these resorts.  These days there are many people from the old communist countries as well as from 'traditional" sources.   However, I am not pointing a finger at any particular national group.   It is certainly true that UK tourists often come in for criticism but anti-social behaviour is not unique to Brits on holiday.  

Having stayed at Taba I know that the local staff there are charming and try very hard to make a holiday at their resort as pleasant as possible.  However with somethings being as obvious as the causes of the health problem mentioned in the report, the managements have a duty to tackle and censure those tourists (and their offspring) who behave in a way that offends guests in such a basic and unhygenic way.  It should not need a class action by 140 families to bring about remedial action by the tour operator and the resort - it should not have happened in the first place.

Air Asia introduces "quiet Child Free Zones"

 

The issue of noise from other passengers is one which has often been raised before.  The debate on whether to allow mobile phones on passenger planes highlighted one source of in-flight disturbance.  Noisy children are often cited as a pet hate amongst passengers.www.terminalu.com/travel.../noisy-children...flights.../4697/ .  However, culturally the cult of "Kids come first" is deeply embedded in Western society - Dr Ben Spock published "Baby and Child Care",  in 1946; this had an enormous impact on raising children, especially in America.   His books were later criticised by some in America at the time of the Vietnam War, whose domestic supporters alleged that it had propagated permissiveness and an expectation of instant gratifications amongst America's young.

I have grown to accept the "Kids come first" 'laisser faire'  attitude is common  amongst many modern parents.    However, having worked in the Far East it comes as no surprise that Air Asia has introduced a 'child free zone' in their planes.  I say this because, in contrast to the West, in the Far East they have a strong culture of respecting their elders and encouraging good behaviour from the younger generation.  In contrast its often evident that Western ethos allows  offspring to behave in a way that discomforts fellow travellers without being restrained by mum or dad.   Every one brings up their kids in the way they consider proper; but when that method results in trespassesing on other people's expectations of a quiet and comfortable journey, whether by train, coach or plane, I hold that that is not acceptable.  I am not the only one it seems - try Googling "Noisy Kids on planes" !!!!!

On one transatlantic flight, along with my section of the plane, I was confined for over 8 hours in an aluminium tube all of us suffering with increasing irritation when a 5 yr old "princess" in the seat in front of me bounced , shouted and demanded attention from everyone around and cried when she did not get her own way.  She generally made herself objectionable ( perhaps an X-Factor contestant to come?) to one and all.  Her parents were subjected to hostile stares and angy glances from across the cabin, in answer to which they feebly smiled and raised their shoulders in a "what can you do?" gesture.  Not once did they offer to try to restrain their child's behaviour.  I am not suggesting physical chastisement but at least try to reason with the child to settle down and stop annoying fellow travellers!!   The whole cabin could have happily invited the princess to play "outside"!!

I accept that this may be an extreme example.  Most kids are great on flights I have been on.  I always make a point of complimenting parents who have had well behaved small children near me on long tedious journeys.   Complaining to the other type of parent does no good anyway!!!  Their idea of "well-behaved" probably does not sync with yours for a start!!

Air Asia should be congratulated on the move attempting to protect their customers from the few parents unable or unwilling to educate their offspring on how to behave in public.  I am sure in the far eastern market place it will be a popular move.  However it's not something I can see catching on in Europe or the US despite the problem being a major beef with regular air passengers.  Interesting to see how the initiative devlops!!

Return to Jersey

 Doing a recount of the countries I have visited over the years I reckon to have clocked up 55 to date.  I then remembered that I had not counted the Channel Islands!  Counting Jersey, Guernsey and Sark it makes 58!!  Well - they are sovereign states in a way - did you know for instance that Jersey is not in the EU?  I tried to do the UK national lottery this week on a visit to my Jersey resident sister and to watch Jersey's inaugural beach polo event.  I was unable to participate because I was out of the UK and eurozone!  You learn something new every day!

I have not been to the island for over 10 years andI reckoned I would try and use my Amex points to help offsent ticket costs - well forget that!  Amex travel use a franchise agency apparently - they were very helpful and I have no complaints on that score but when they told me that instead of a one for one exchange rate to buy our economy tickets it was more like eight for one I baulked! 

So I tried Momondo (part of Cheapflights Media and excellent for finding flights to fit a schedule).  I ended up with flying with Flybe from Gatwick usuing their "New Economy" price package.  This got me preselected seats and 20kgs of hold luggage plus up to 10 Kgs of hand luggage.  Note though that means one carry-on item only - no handbag or laptop case in addition to the 10 Kgs carry on bag..... Flybe use DASH 400s on the route.  These are very handy prop-jet twin engine aircraft with the  cabin arranged 2 seats on either side of the 'plane's narrow cabin.  Being a high wing design there is great downward visability from all windows which is great when crossing the Channel.  Personally I enjoyed the flight.  Tho' for those of a nervous disposition avoid row 8 as the propellors are right alongside your window. 

The trip did not start well as we arrived at Gatwick in good time when the bag drop person told us we would have to pay for the two hold luggage bags.  Check-in hold luggage being invariably a necessity when travelling with my better half this threatened to be an expensive situation.  (Well you never know what the weather is going to do when you intend to watch an outdoor event like Beach Polo.  To give her credit she had cut down the wardrobe to the bone and she only had 12 Kgs!  It took a while for the problem to be sorted and the gremlin in the computer to be overuled.   We then discovered that the 11.15 flight was delayed until (at least) 12.30 due to a technical problem.    As we only had the "New Economy" tickets, the Flybe lounge was not available to us.  However, fortunately we have Priority Pass lounge cards and were able to rest up and refresh in the Serviceair lounge.  In the event the plane finally took off just before 13.00.

Jersey is a very pleasant place to visit with great beaches, fishing villages and local restaurants as well as smart hotels if you wish.  Supposedly it also has the highest daily sunshine record in the UK.  It certainly did not disappoint on the latter point and our 3 days there provided lovely weather and wonderful visability.  We could see France easily as well as Guernsey and Sark from Sorel point on the North coast.  We borrowed my sister's car and noted that 95 unleaded petrol (gasoline for any American cousins reading this) was £1.17 per litre - a nearly 20p cheaper than in the UK.  Being a tax-haven and offshore financial centre Jersey is awash with sporty saloons and sportscar.  They must be fairly frustrated drivers as the maximum speed there is 40mph and there are "Green Lanes" criss-crossing the countryside where cars must give way to pedestrians, horses, and cyclists - Jersey also has a very sensible road regulation.  If you see a sign at a roundabout or where two lanes merge into one saying 'Filter by Turn', every alternate car takes priority.  Its a very efficient way of keeping a bottle-neck moving even at the even rush hour outside St Helier the main town. 

Our return journey was also marked by a one hour delay and the Flybe executive lounge was unmanned, unavailable and very uninviting looking.  So I pitched up at the BA lounge and used our Priority Passes again to while away the time in a modicum of comfort.  The DASH 400 arrived just outside the lounge window, disgorged its passengers and immediately boarded us without delay.  After landing the pilot most proably exceeded Gatwick's taxiing speed limit as we fairly whizzed along to our  stand heeling over as we took the corners on the taxi-ways.    Gatwick is carrying out a multi million pound rebuild and refurb of facilities and it is very evident in the main areas.  The airport is a very different, more modern and pleasing place to what it was before BAA was forced by the Competition Commission to sell it.  However, unfortunately for Flybe, the walk from the Flybe stand through the terminal was simply miles to walk to the Border and Baggage reclaim areas.  It initially passed through a covered exterior pathway which reminded me of several third world country airports I have passed through a few years back - peeling paint on corrugated arches supported by equally ancient scaffolding bars with accompanying rubbish on the ground before reaching the main terminal areas- not a good impression of the airport at all. 
Apart from the delays (the locals call Flybe "FlayMaybe") its is an easy trip  and one that can reward with good food, especially seafood and lovely beaches.

Me & Sis

'Images of Polo' in Action

1727 Farmhouse Nr St Aubin

 

Mt Orguil - Gorey Castle

To Be or Not to Be - More runways for the South East?

"La plus ca change, la plus c'et la meme"

 

To Be or Not to Be - More runways for the South East?

 



That is certainly the question foremost in the industry's minds at present.  There seems to be general agreement NIMBYs apart and even by most of the Government that more runway capacity is needed for the good of the economy.

The Government has of course done a neat political sidestep given its previous opposition to Heathrow's expansion and appointed an independent commission, without a single politician aboard, under Sir Howard Davies to look into options to achieve more runway capacity and to maintain London as a major hub.  That appointment has brought  forth comments from leading political commentator Iain Martin that Sir Howard is an odd choice in that he ran the FSA and then LSE from 1997-2003 and 2003 respecively and failed to regulate the banks well enough or to avoid the 'Gadaffigate' problem when the LSE infamously feted the Col's son.  However even if the commission does come out with a proposed solution there is no guarantee that it would be adopted and in any case it's going to take (I imagine) at least 12 to 18 months to publish - just before the next General Election is due in 2015.   A new Government then, and with it new political agendas and promises to take into account could mean that any independent recommendation could be rejected. 

Meanwhile the Government has an excuse NOT to push forward on this vital matter until it can decently (if need be) reverse its opposition to Heathrow's expansion in the event that the Commission finds in favour of more capacity at Heathrow.  Reportedly Zac Goldsmith  MP for Richand Park and leading anti Heathrow campaigner has said he will resign and offer his seat to Boris Johnson if Heathrow is eventualy given the go-ahead - a direct threat to the PM in essence as Boris is said to fancy himself at No 10.

Personally I do like the idea of Boris's Thames Estuary airport.  However the problems facing such a scheme are likely to be huge given the area's importance to bird migratory routes and resting grounds. Also a rusting timebomb in the Estuary that could explode with the force of a mini nuke under the flight paths and destroy a lot os Sheerness; add to that the UK's largest LNG terminal alongside Lord Foster's runways and finally above ground; a huge air traffic control problem requiring the co-operation of the Dutch because of Schiphol's existing ATC requirements over the Estuary.

And so the delays go on - However, I guess that we can take comfort in the fact that even the super efficient Germans are now faced with a further delay in the opening of the new Berlin airport which I now learn will not open until October 2013. 

Salute to Neil Armstrong - The First "Tourist" on the Moon

August 2012: Place Morny Deauville, France - US Flags at Half-Mast In Respect for the First Man on the Moon

"That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind."

 

I actually watched Neil Armstrong make that incredible step on TV in 1969.  As I did so I felt awed by the incredible feat that man had achieved.  Not being American I however embraced the moment as my own along with every other person on the planet who had ever dreampt of the possibility of man reaching the moon.  I was also, I have to admit, feeling a little smug as I watched that first foostep imprint itself on the Moon's surface.  Smug?  Well as a small schoolboy in shorts I had often been severely ribbed by my schoolfriends for claiming that man would land on the moon in our lifetime -  Had we had Twitter at the time I would have tweeted "Told you so!" to all my friends and thanked NASA and Neil Armstrong too.

 

Given the fact that in Armstrong's own words this was a seminal event for the whole of  Mankind, it's perhaps not surprising that on a sunny August day in Normandy the flags surrounding the fountains in Deauville's central  square were US flags which flew at half-mast for several days in respect for the passing of the world's first man to walk on the Moon. 

 



 



Stowawae has been away/busy.

Having officially "retired" on 6th June - two months later there seems an endless stream of things that have to be done and which keep me really busy and unfocused on the travel world.   However, HTR3 is very much back in the news with speculation as to whether the PM has got the political will to come out and support the third runway. Also MPs from all parties are now calling for the HTR3 to become a reality in the country's long term interests.    As speculated before in my blog it appears that a path is being prpared to allow "Dave" to do a U-Turn due to inescapable practical arguments which the industry (and Unions even) have been pointing out for several years.  Unfortunately it appears that there are many in the coalition who hope he does not change his opinion.  In the USA they have crime called "Reckless Endangerment" and if HTR3 is not given the go-ahead soon, these antis oughtt to be charged with it for recklessly endangering the future prospects of the UK economy.

Over 100,000 people have lobbied their MP's about Air Passenger duty and the need to seriously review this tax on inward investment and tourism.    Hence there is a lot beginning to stir on that front and a lots of political blood will now doubt be spilt before a final decision is made on any of these issues. 

It does seem tho that APD and the lack of a strategic and sustainable UK Aviation Policy are  becoming area much hotter issues than before.  Or perhaps I got that wrong?  Perhaps HTR3 is getting cooler?  Before it was so politically hot that  no one seemingly had the guts to tackle it head on.  Now it seems its becoming cool enough to set hands to.      It will be interesting to see whether the Labour party will support HTR3 as they did before the last General Election or whether national interests will survive political (vote catching) considerations.  

One thing which I would like to see on the Agenda from the Government is a reduction in taxes, as Mayor Boris has stated publicly  VAT is a tax on consumption.  When Brits and tourists (not to mention overseas investors), spend here they help stimulate the economy.  High taxes deter spending and do the opposite surely or am I being naieve?

US Senate Throws Down Gauntlet to EU over ETS

As I have written before in this blog, the EU has already been served notice that the US as well as China are not prepared to submit to the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) when payments become due for all aircraft using EU airspace after April 2013.

This week the US Senate passed a bill that would prohibit US airlines submitting to the EU's unilateral move to force foreign airlines to participate in the EU ETS.  China has already told its airlines to ignore the EU.  Such a bill would require Presidential approval and President Obama has said that he does not agree with the EU's unilateral action.  However, it is not a foregone conclusion that the President would wish to provoke a direct challenge whilst there is a chance that an international carbon trading scheme for aviation might come into being under the auspices of the International Civil Aviation Organisation.   In a concilliatory move the EU has said it would be prepared to participate in the ICAO's global initiative as long as it shared the EU's own agenda.

Understandably US aviation and businesses have not reacted well to the EU's challenge to their nation's sovreignty - its after all pretty high-handed of Brussels to in effect expect to be able to unilaterally impose taxes on other nations.   So its not surprising to learn that a collective of US business groups including A4A (Airlines for America) are pressing the Obama Administration to mount a legal challenge through the Chicago Convention on the basis that the EU is seeking to impose an extra-terrestial tax on mileage flown outside of the EU's air space.

Let's hope that a trade war with Europe does not break out - The Eurozone is in dire straits anyway - what it does not need is a debilitating fracas with the rest of the world - as they say  "War does not determine who is right, it determines who is left." 

London Olympics - Where have all the people gone!

Where Have all the People Gone - Not to Mention Traffic

Courtesy of RAC Web Site News

If ever the power of the press is doubted then you just have to look at London's empty roads, the availability of reservations at normally impossible to book restaurants  and listen to the complaints of shops and taxi drivers that "Things are very quiet".   I admit I don't live near any of the Olympic venues - I am in Chelsea actually. 

Tho' I don't recommend trying it, you could walk across the King's Road blindfolded and get away with it for most of the day whilst the Olympics are on.

A friend suggested that photos in the media of troops setting up AA missiles on the roofs of tower blocks near the arena might have disuaded some people.  But what about the chaos on the M4 closed for the week before the start of the games and the huge publicity about hotels hiking their prices for the Olympics.  Even Pret a Manger raised the price of their great Crayfish salad by 7% just before the opening week.   

Then there were the road closures for cycling and other olympic events which clearly persuaded the motoring public that London roads were fraught with difficulties and likely to get them fines of £130 should they in ignorance stray into an Olympic lane - oh and to add to the confusion drivers could use Bus lanes (normally an £80 fine) when the olympic routes were in operation.  Hold on tho!! At non peek periods we were told that if the illuminated signs for the routes were saying "Use All Lanes" in white lights (as opposed to yellow for don't use lanes) then we could use the Olympic lane.  BUT did that mean we could also use the Bus lane and risk the £80 fine?  No guidance on that!  No surprise then that sensible drivers kept out of London.  Indeed  when I drove out and back to/from Sussex last week-end I managed to avoid the Ladies Cycle road race whose route had encircled my house in "access only" roads.  Despite this I made both outward and homebound trips in record time.

I cannot say that I was ever a great fan of hosting the Olympics.  I actually pointed out that for the past five olympic games no host city has turned in a profit.  Sorry to say it but it looks like London will be no exception.    Well as they say about sport - "Its not about winning, its about taking part"  London is certainly playing its part but as for winning ............

Kings Road at Start of the Evening  'Rush Hour'

Heathrow - More Clues about third runway?

Politics and Compromise

One thing is clear about the debate between the pros and cons for a third runway at Heathrow - no decision is likely to be forthcoming in the very near future.  Given the election promises of no further capacity at Heathrow, or indeed the South-East, for blatant political vote capturing reasons at the time, the Coalition is so divided on the subject that it is politically impossible for them to push through any meaningful strategy.  Hence the delay in starting the much heralded (but regularly delayed) consultation on aviation policy.  This will now start we are promised in "the autumn".

Speaking to the BBC recently, John Strickland, a respected aviation consultant said: "This is fiddling while Rome burns.  Putting off until the autumn any consultation on extra runway capacity simply puts more pressure on existing infrastructure and leaves the UK further behind its competitors, not only in Europe, but the Middle East."

Looking at the opaque political processes of Westminster, even as an insider, which I am clearly not, can be misleading.  Leaks to the media and groups of MP's proposing this or that idea are only worth noticing if the ideas gather momentum and generate a consensus in the House as well as gaining public acceptance, thus blessing the idea with a political imperative that the Government finds difficult to ignore.

The current "Kite" being flown by a group of MPs is for those households most badly affected by aircraft noise at Heathrow should receive some form of financial compensation.  If this proposal can sweeten local voters (buy them effectively, rather like the old 18th and early 19th century 'rotten boroughs' when the handful of enfranchised voters could be bribed into voting for a candidate) then the political fear of losing votes in the important West London constituancies close to Heathrow might persuade local MP's to support the idea of a third runway.  The MPs behind it are allegedly thinking along lines acceptable to the Chancellor.  Also the funding for the proposal is likely to fall on the airport owners and the airlines - not the Treasury leaving the chancellor able to look at other infrastructure projects in regions other than the South-East.

If it does generate enough support, the proposal would be very convenient for the Chancellor.  George Osborne has to face the fact that Heathrow or a brand new airport near London is vital for the UK's future competitiveness.  A fact that is supported by the aviation, industry, the unions and it seems every  aviation expert.  Apart from the politics, its just how much will it cost and where to put it that is inevitatbly preventing any positive action, despite the urgent need to grasp the nettle and start building.  Media comments indicate that the Chancellor, George Osborne, now believes that Heathrow 3 would provide the cheapest solution.  It would have to be if he is able to deliver the other national infrastructure projects in rail and road tht the UK also clearly needs.

Meanwhile, if the compensation idea does take off and win local support from MP's and local voters alike before the autumn, then one might hope that the aviation policy consultation period might eventually produce a viable and sustainable policy for the country to work to.  At a guess though it will be part of an election manifesto rather than being launched during this government's term.

Meantime I thought the following quote provides sage advice to any politician part of a democracy like the UK and US: it's from a book, "The Spirit of Compromise" by Amy Gutmann and Dennis Thompson. Copyright © 2012 by Princeton University Press.  To learn more about this book and the authors, please visit Princeton University Press.

"If politics is the art of the possible, compromise is the artistry of democracy.

Democracy calls on politicians to resist compromise and to accept it. They may resist it more when they campaign, but they need to accept it more when they govern."

The latter is so true in the context of the debate on Heathrow's much needed 3rd runway

London 2012 - Plenty of Room at the Inn!

Just over 4 years ago in early July, London beat Paris to become the 2012 Olympic venue.  It came at a time when recession was being discussed  by analysts and international Banks were on the brink of what was to become a period of closures and sell-offs.  Gordon Gekko R.I.P.!

The award of the Olympics venue was seen by some as a reason to be optimistic and to celebrate. The last time London hosted the event was in 1948 when remarkably it made a very small profit.    Others pointed out that none of the Cities hosting the past 5 Olympics had made money - even during periods of relative world economic strength.    It is very doubtful whether 2012 will end up with London making a profit.   Apart from construction costs and new infrastructure, plus manpower costs to support the games there are the costs of signage and road markings which for weeks will change traffic patterns in the Capital.  The time and planning that have gone into ensuring that every aspect of transporation, security, safety and the smooth running of the games has been enormous - all at a cost.... 

Then there are the "incidental costs".  As a West London resident I have received several booklets advising me of road closures and dates where traffic will be banned or badly affected.  Apart from the cost of every household getting the two booklets (duplicating the information!), the widespread publicity about Olympic traffic only lanes with £130 fines for those unfortunate enough to drive into one has definitely deterred traffic coming into my part of London anyway.  Some tradesman are even stopping deliveries or working in Central London during the Olympics.  It will be interesting to see what experience shops and restaurants have over the games' period.

There are already several indicators that give an idea that the games may not provide the bonanza economic boost the the local economy, let alone the UK, is hoping for.  This week London hotels are having to discount room prices with one late-booking site saying it is carrying scores of central London four-star hotels this week with rates at just £59 a night and five-star luxury from £110.  Next week after the start of the games rates rise to £100 and £180 a night respectively and hotels claim they are fully booked.  If that is the case then travellers looking for a bed need not worry - only about 10% of the private rentals market that hoped to benefit from the Olympic effect have been actually booked.   Remarkably the Guardian newspaper reported that the iconic restaurant, the Ivy, normally fully booked for weeks in advance was able to offer its reporter a table for the same day.  I'm sure many restaurants are seeing the same effect. 

I guess we should not be too surprised.  With the Eurozone continuing to teeter on the brink of an ever-deepening crisis; VAT on Hotels at 20% and restuarants; the Pound at its highest against the Dollar and the Euro;  Air Passenger Duty the highest tax on flying in the World, plus all the negative publicity about immigation problems at Heathrow its difficult to imagine a scenario less conducive to tourism to the UK. 

However London is a great place to be with or without an Olympic ticket!  Also the wet weather which we suffered in June seems to be over and at last, in the words of the old West -End musical "Salad Days",  'The sun has got his hat on!  Hip,Hip,Hip Hooray!' The forecast is not too bad either! So please don't give up on coming to London there is still room at the Inn!!

Oil Price Update - July 12

The yardstick North Sea Brent crude oil spot price has recovered above the $100 pb level as predicted might happen in last month's blog.   It is now hovering around $106-108 pb having risen slightly each day for the past few days. 

The consensus is that OPEC would like to see the price settle between $105-$110.  Until now higher than normal US oil stocks and perceived weakness in the world economy have dampened sentiment  with only threats to supply being made by Iran balancing this out.  Last month however saw increased housing starts in the US as well as higher demand for gasoline (petrol) which is likely the reason for the present recovery above $100.   There was a threat from Iran to close off the Straits of Hormuz, the major export route for Gulf oil but it was also announced that the pipelines designed to by-pass the Straits are now open.   Closing off the Straits would certainly be a reason for the price of oil to rise sharply despite the new alternative route.  It would undoubtedly result in a response from the US and the possibility of armed confrontation and result in huge middle east tensions.  Lets hope that it does not come to that especially as it seems there may be some "green shoots" attempting to push up despite the World economic situation.    With no reliable crystal ball available I am going to guess that the oil price may trend a little higher if US economic stats continue to show improvements, however slight they might be......

M4 Re-opened ....Warning re Olympic Routes

Been out of touch with no internet access 'til today fm last Thursday;  so was pleased to see that the M4 reopened early on Friday morning.    I think the reopening could not have been widely reported or seen by drivers over the week-end.  Coming into London on the A3 last night the end of the dual carriage-way of the A3 Kingston By-Pass was solid with traffic for over a mile.  Probably most were avoiding the M4.  Finger crossed the Boston Manor M4 bridges will be OK from now on!!
However!! Drivers should beware that the old M4 Bus Lane (red surface outside lane) between junctions 2 & 3 which was re-opened to all traffic several years ago is again closed to normal traffic.  It is currently exclusively an Olympic Route between 5 a.m. and 10 p.m..   Drivers who use the lane in between these times until the end of the Olympics face £130 fines.  This fine also applies to using olympic lanes operating in the rest of London with £200 fines being levied on parked cars in the lanes. 

I can see huge confusion being caused on these routes.  Regular commuting drivers used to keeping out of bus lanes may find that once olympic routes are in operation that the bus lanes are open and their usual lane to the right of bus lanes has been designated an olympic one.   Regular drivers on these routes will have to use the bus lanes - Confusing or what!!!  The fines above will apply for those caught out by bad signage or ignorance.

LBC Radio have a useful site on road closures http://www.lbc.co.uk/2012-olympics-road-closures-overview-46779